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March 27th, 2019
⏰ 2 minute read
⏰ 2 minute read
Election fever
You might not have been here, but I remember the 1999 election as if yesterday. The highlight was the PDIP rally with millions in red along Sudirman. Me & a couple of other Sharpfokus subscribers went to join in. I’m not paying any attention to the 2019 presidential election, but I am paying attention to the parliamentary one. Here’s why.
Misuse of word
Tyranny
Back in 1999 we were about to enter the world of democracy. It’s only years later that I realize how misunderstood that word is & how dangerous it is. So dangerous that it was cited by the US founding fathers (& Indonesia) as the most dangerous political system known to man. They rightly feared the tyranny of the majority.
US & UK
It is often thought that the US & the U.K. are democracies, but they’re not. The U.K. is a monarchy with the queen & an unwritten constitution. The US is a constitutional republic. It seems to me clear that it’s no coincidence these 2 counties are the strongest politically, legally & as we noted previously they’re the only 2 economic buyers in the world.
Rest
The rest of the world tends to follow Democracy in one form or another The proof of the dangers is in the results. The rest of the world has ended up with weakness in the political, legal or economic or all 3. Ultimately it’s the economics which eventually suffers. None of the rest are buyers with the slight exception of India.
The forked road
First past post
Back in 1999 when Indonesia changed the political system, it faced a fork in the road. One way is the first past the post system of the US & UK. Which has 2 important elements. 1. Regional winners who win largest, not majority votes & mostly form strong majority governments. 2. The people don’t directly elect the leader.
Majority
The other fork was the democratic way where seats are allocated on a proportional majority system. This ensures losers who would never win a race get into government & the real winners can never get a majority. In other words an alternate reality where government is by a majority of losers. Indonesia decided to go down this fork.
You might not have been here, but I remember the 1999 election as if yesterday. The highlight was the PDIP rally with millions in red along Sudirman. Me & a couple of other Sharpfokus subscribers went to join in. I’m not paying any attention to the 2019 presidential election, but I am paying attention to the parliamentary one. Here’s why.
Misuse of word
Tyranny
Back in 1999 we were about to enter the world of democracy. It’s only years later that I realize how misunderstood that word is & how dangerous it is. So dangerous that it was cited by the US founding fathers (& Indonesia) as the most dangerous political system known to man. They rightly feared the tyranny of the majority.
US & UK
It is often thought that the US & the U.K. are democracies, but they’re not. The U.K. is a monarchy with the queen & an unwritten constitution. The US is a constitutional republic. It seems to me clear that it’s no coincidence these 2 counties are the strongest politically, legally & as we noted previously they’re the only 2 economic buyers in the world.
Rest
The rest of the world tends to follow Democracy in one form or another The proof of the dangers is in the results. The rest of the world has ended up with weakness in the political, legal or economic or all 3. Ultimately it’s the economics which eventually suffers. None of the rest are buyers with the slight exception of India.
The forked road
First past post
Back in 1999 when Indonesia changed the political system, it faced a fork in the road. One way is the first past the post system of the US & UK. Which has 2 important elements. 1. Regional winners who win largest, not majority votes & mostly form strong majority governments. 2. The people don’t directly elect the leader.
Majority
The other fork was the democratic way where seats are allocated on a proportional majority system. This ensures losers who would never win a race get into government & the real winners can never get a majority. In other words an alternate reality where government is by a majority of losers. Indonesia decided to go down this fork.
Sharpfokus predictions for the 2019 elections.
Indonesia
I remember clearly the astonishment of PDIP supporters who couldn’t understand why they didn’t win in 1999 & why Megawati wasn’t President. That’s the result of the alternate reality majority voting system. It got worse. Today no party in parliament has 20%, so no chance of strong government & we have directly elected presidents, which invites trouble & tyranny.
Retrace
Parliament
But things tend to play out quickly here & after a 20 year trip down the wrong path, I hope this year you will see a massive reversal. First, parliament has revised the voting system & raised the level required to get in. This will shift it back towards a majority & signs are the PDIP could win the largest % they every got, over 35%. Let’s hope it’s even higher.
President
Meanwhile the presidential election is descending into farce just as you would expect with a direct election majority voting system. Give people a direct 50:50 choice & you will end up with a close to 50:50 answer, weakness, argument & endless indecision follows. That’s why the US/U.K. don’t use it. This presidential cycle my guess is closer to 50:50.
Pancasilla
This might cause a temporary constitutional crisis, & government shut down (that’s par for the course in the world today). But this is good because it’s great for us when government shuts down & Indonesia’s founders like the US never intended for direct Democracy elections. 2019 we are heading back towards their original idea with a stronger parliament & a better balance of power (a weaker president).
JCI Mega boom
As we’ve seen in the US over the last couple of years, a return to the basics & the constitution & less ‘democracy’ is the magic sauce for a great performance of both the economy & the stock market. With $ returns on Indonesian stocks & GDP at close to 0% for the last several years, the JCI can now Mega boom.
Be a great investor 📈
Sebastian
I remember clearly the astonishment of PDIP supporters who couldn’t understand why they didn’t win in 1999 & why Megawati wasn’t President. That’s the result of the alternate reality majority voting system. It got worse. Today no party in parliament has 20%, so no chance of strong government & we have directly elected presidents, which invites trouble & tyranny.
Retrace
Parliament
But things tend to play out quickly here & after a 20 year trip down the wrong path, I hope this year you will see a massive reversal. First, parliament has revised the voting system & raised the level required to get in. This will shift it back towards a majority & signs are the PDIP could win the largest % they every got, over 35%. Let’s hope it’s even higher.
President
Meanwhile the presidential election is descending into farce just as you would expect with a direct election majority voting system. Give people a direct 50:50 choice & you will end up with a close to 50:50 answer, weakness, argument & endless indecision follows. That’s why the US/U.K. don’t use it. This presidential cycle my guess is closer to 50:50.
Pancasilla
This might cause a temporary constitutional crisis, & government shut down (that’s par for the course in the world today). But this is good because it’s great for us when government shuts down & Indonesia’s founders like the US never intended for direct Democracy elections. 2019 we are heading back towards their original idea with a stronger parliament & a better balance of power (a weaker president).
JCI Mega boom
As we’ve seen in the US over the last couple of years, a return to the basics & the constitution & less ‘democracy’ is the magic sauce for a great performance of both the economy & the stock market. With $ returns on Indonesian stocks & GDP at close to 0% for the last several years, the JCI can now Mega boom.
Be a great investor 📈
Sebastian